Volatility Guide - Learn About Hit Frequency & How To Pick Your Style
Volatility in slots means how often you can expect a winning spin and how big those wins are likely to be. In the simplest terms, it's a measure of risk.
This guide breaks down the ins and outs of volatility in online slots and other online casino games and helps you understand what level of volatility suits you the best.
Volatility Explained
Think of the volatility as a game's personality. A low volatility slot provides a steady, predictable experience with frequent small wins. A high volatility slot is the opposite. It's a rollercoaster ride with long, quiet spells followed by rare, but potentially huge, payouts. Understanding this single concept is the key to choosing games that match your budget and playing style.
Volatility by the Numbers
While volatility describes the feel of a game, it's built on concrete mathematics. Two key numbers define how a slot pays out: Return to Player (RTP) and Hit Frequency.
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RTP
The Return To Player rate is the percentage of all wagered money a slot is programmed to pay back to players over a very long time (millions of spins). A slot with a 96% RTP is designed to return £96 for every £100 wagered over its entire lifespan. This is a long-term average, not a guarantee for any single session.
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Hit Frequency
Hit frequency is the percentage of spins that will result in a win of any size. The formula is:
- (Number of Winning Combinations / Total Number of Combinations) x 100 = Hit Frequency (%)
A higher hit frequency usually means lower volatility, as the game is paying out more often. Low volatility slots can have a hit frequency of 30% or more, while high volatility games might be closer to 10-20%. The detailed definition may vary from one game provider to another, though.
For instance, according to Bigwinboard.com, an online slots news & review site, Hacksaw Gaming's Le Viking is a medium volatility slot with 38.17% hit frequency. Chaos Crew 3 from the same provider is classified as a high volatility slot that has 31% hit frequency.
It's also good to note that the industry has been leaning towards developing high volatility slots more. If you look at the recent releases of NetEnt, Pragmatic Play, and Play'n Go, for example, nearly all of them are highly volatile.
Volatility in Action: A 100-Spin Example
Imagine two different slots, both with a 96% RTP. You have a £100 budget and plan to make 100 spins at £1 each. Here’s how volatility could change your experience:
| Slot Type | Slot A (Medium Volatility) | Slot B (High Volatility) |
|---|---|---|
| Hit Frequency | ~35% | ~15% |
| Expected Wins | Around 35 winning spins | Around 15 winning spins |
| Win Pattern | Many small wins (£0.20 - £5). Your balance stays relatively stable. | Long periods with no wins, but a few large payouts (£20 - £100+). Your balance sees big swings. |
| Max Payout | Typically 250x - 500x bet | Often 5,000x - 10,000x bet or more |
As you can see, while both games are programmed to return £96 in the long run, the short-term experience is dramatically different.
The above is just an illustrative example and doesn't reflect your real play. It draws parallels between the low-med volatility slots and the high volatility slots.
How Volatility Is Calculated
While players can get a feel for volatility, developers use a precise mathematical formula to assign a game a "Volatility Index" or score, often on a scale of 0 to 5 or 10. This isn't public information, but the method reveals what truly defines a game's risk. A simplified version of an industry-standard formula looks like this:
- Volatility Score = ({Std Dev Weight x 0.5} + {Inverse Hit Freq Weight x 0.3} + {Max Win Weight x 0.2})
Here’s what that means in plain English:
Standard Deviation
This is the most important factor. It's a statistical measure of how much the individual payouts deviate from the average payout (the RTP). A higher standard deviation means wilder swings and therefore higher volatility.
Inverse Hit Frequency
This measures how infrequently a game pays out. The longer the average losing streaks, the higher this number is, and the more it contributes to the volatility score.
Max Win Potential
This is a normalised value of the game's maximum possible win. A massive jackpot potential significantly increases the volatility score.
Based on the final score, a game is then given its label if it were a 10-scale index:
- Low Volatility: Score below 3
- Medium Volatility: Score between 3 and 7
- High Volatility: Score above 7
Source: Slot Volatility Analysis | PDF | Volatility (Finance) | Standard Deviation
Which Volatility Level Is Right for You?
Online slots are typically rated on a five-point scale from low to high volatility. Choosing the right level depends entirely on your budget and what you want from a session.
Low Volatility
- Best for: Beginners, players with a small budget, or those who want longer play sessions.
- Risk Level: Low. Your bankroll is likely to last longer.
- Experience: A relaxed pace with a steady stream of small, satisfying wins.
Medium Volatility
- Best for: Players who want a balanced experience.
- Risk Level: Medium. Offers a good mix of risk and reward.
- Experience: A blend of smaller wins, with the chance of a significant payout from a bonus feature.
High Volatility
- Best for: Thrill-seekers, patient players, and those with a larger bankroll.
- Risk Level: High. You can burn through your budget quickly.
- Experience: An exciting experience with long dry spins punctuated by massive wins.
FAQs
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Yusaku is an editor at Casinolyze. He has worked in the online casino industry in various roles, including customer support, marketing, and management, for over five years. Drawing on his knowledge of casino operations and industry insights, he is passionate about providing honest reviews and helpful guides for readers. Feel free to send him a message regarding any editorial matters.
